If your business is considering or currently navigating investor-state or international commercial arbitration, you’re already thinking ahead. One of the most common—and important—questions clients ask me is: “How long will this really take?” The answer isn’t just an academic one. Realistic timelines matter for budgeting, strategic planning, and managing expectations with your board and stakeholders.
Two Roads: Investment Arbitration vs. Commercial Arbitration
The first step is to know which path you’re on. Not all arbitrations are created equal. Commercial arbitration usually covers disputes between businesses, while investment arbitration involves conflicts between investors and states. Understanding the difference up front can save you time, money, and unnecessary frustration.
Commercial Arbitration: Usually a Faster Track
When businesses arbitrate against each other, the wheels turn relatively quickly. Across major institutions worldwide, the median duration for international commercial arbitration generally ranges from about 14 to 22 months. Let’s break down some recent numbers:
For businesses, these timelines mean that arbitration is usually measured in months, not years. That makes it a powerful alternative to notoriously slow court processes, especially for cross-border disputes where speed and confidentiality are valued.
Investment Arbitration: Prepare for the Long Haul
The journey gets much longer when investors and states are on opposite sides. Cases often stretch far beyond commercial timelines, due to complex jurisdictional questions and heavy evidentiary loads:
Commercial Arbitration: Usually a Faster Track
When businesses arbitrate against each other, the wheels turn relatively quickly. Across major institutions worldwide, the median duration for international commercial arbitration generally ranges from about 14 to 22 months. Let’s break down some recent numbers:
- ICC arbitrations: In 2024, these cases took an average of 26 months, and the median was 22 months.
- LCIA: On average, 20 months.
- HKIAC: Cases typically wrapped up in about 15 months (median) or nearly 18 months (mean).
- SIAC: Mean duration was just under 14 months; the median, even quicker, at about 12 months.
- SCC: 65% of cases finished within a year from when the tribunal was appointed.
For businesses, these timelines mean that arbitration is usually measured in months, not years. That makes it a powerful alternative to notoriously slow court processes, especially for cross-border disputes where speed and confidentiality are valued.
Investment Arbitration: Prepare for the Long Haul
The journey gets much longer when investors and states are on opposite sides. Cases often stretch far beyond commercial timelines, due to complex jurisdictional questions and heavy evidentiary loads:
- The latest data shows ICSID cases average 4 years and 8 months (56 months).
- Investment arbitrations under UNCITRAL rules tend to resolve about five months faster than ICSID cases.
- High-value claims—especially those over $1 billion—can drag on for nearly eight years.
Why Does It Take So Long? The Impact of Bifurcation
One major procedural detour is called bifurcation—splitting a case into separate stages, usually separating jurisdictional phase and the merits phase. If the parties disagree about jurisdiction and the tribunal decides to bifurcate the case, this jurisdictional phase must be resolved before moving to the merits.
- Bifurcated cases can take up to a year and a half longer than those handled all at once, unless the jurisdictional challenge succeeds and ends the case early.
- If it doesn’t, both sides face a longer, costlier road.
Efficiency Reforms: Are Institutions Getting Faster?
Institutions aren’t standing still. For example, ICSID’s new rules set a mandatory 240-day deadline after the last submission for issuance of an award (and 180 days for issuance of the decision on preliminary objections), offer an expedited track where the parties agree to expedite the proceedings, and require both parties and tribunals to act efficiently and in good faith. Early management conferences, electronic filings, and strict deadlines are now standard at many institutions.
You Can Influence the Timeline: Strategic Choices Matter
When it comes to managing the length of your arbitration proceedings, several strategic decisions can have a substantial impact:
- Choose your arbitrators wisely. Selecting a reputable and available tribunal chair, as well as dedicated co-arbitrators, can keep your case moving forward. Arbitrators who prioritize your matter and maintain manageable caseloads are more likely to avoid scheduling conflicts and prevent unnecessary delays.
- Prioritize cooperation in tribunal appointment. If both parties can agree on the members of the tribunal, the process begins far more quickly—often in under 90 days at ICSID and under 60 days at UNCITRAL. For example, the average time for tribunal constitution drops significantly when parties collaborate, while lengthy disagreements can lead to appointing authority intervention and add months to the timeline—up to 237 days or more in ICSID arbitrations when defaults are triggered.
- Select the right forum for your dispute. While UNCITRAL arbitrations can be somewhat faster and offer procedural flexibility, it may not be the best—or an available—fit for every case. Thoughtful forum selection, based on the underlying contract or treaty, the nature of the parties, and the desired procedural features, is a critical part of controlling timing and outcome.
- Be realistic about the path. Commercial arbitration is often the preferred route for efficiency, but this option may be unavailable—particularly if a commercial contract does not exist and your dispute is with a sovereign State. In those cases, investment arbitration is typically the required avenue, with longer, more complex proceedings.
- Avoid delay tactics. While some parties try to buy time, modern tribunals have strong powers to penalize deliberate obstruction, including cost awards, adverse procedural decisions, or even proceeding in the absence of cooperation. Ultimately, delays rarely lead to better results and can increase both costs and reputational risks for the obstructing party.
Setting Realistic Expectations—and Budgets
Knowing how long arbitration will take is essential for preparing your team, your budget, and your risk management plan.
Setting realistic expectations at the outset will help you avoid surprises and better align your dispute resolution strategy with your business goals.
- For commercial arbitration: Most international commercial disputes will resolve within 15 to 25 months, with the median falling around 20 months at leading institutions such as the LCIA and ICC. Factors like the amount in dispute and procedural choices can shift this window, but you can generally expect final awards within this timeframe.
- For investment arbitration: Timelines are significantly longer. As a baseline, plan for proceedings to last between 3.5 and 5 years. If the proceedings are bifurcated — for example, separated into jurisdiction and merits phases — add another 12 to 18 months.
- For UNCITRAL ad hoc cases: With effective case management, these arbitrations can resolve up to five months faster than ICSID proceedings. In suitable matters where expedited rules apply, a case could be concluded in as little as 6 to 9 months, though this is the exception rather than the rule.
Setting realistic expectations at the outset will help you avoid surprises and better align your dispute resolution strategy with your business goals.
Final Thought: Strategic, Professional Advocacy Wins
The most effective way to keep your arbitration on track—and your business goals in focus—is to pursue a strategy anchored in focused, efficient advocacy. This means thoughtfully selecting the right arbitral institution, assembling a tribunal with proven availability and expertise, and maintaining a collaborative approach whenever possible. By investing in these decisions up front, you help ensure your dispute progresses smoothly and outcomes are aligned with your commercial objectives.
If you, your company, or your government is planning for an upcoming arbitration—or needs to streamline a dispute already underway—I am available to work with you in identifying the best strategy for your unique situation and to steer you clear of common pitfalls along the way.alls.
If you, your company, or your government is planning for an upcoming arbitration—or needs to streamline a dispute already underway—I am available to work with you in identifying the best strategy for your unique situation and to steer you clear of common pitfalls along the way.alls.
